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The missing number in the Pfizer report to calculate death and adverse event rates

By Substack Author

I first reported on Pfizer’s “Cumulative Analysis of Post-Authorization Adverse Event Reports” in February of this year. This document was disclosed in November 2021 and contains the big list of side effects that has been doing the rounds on social media in recent months.

In various articles, I and others noted the large number of adverse events (158,893 events from 42,086 cases), including 1,223 fatalities. Many were incorrectly stating that this showed the fatality rate of the vaccine was 2.9% (1,223 fatalities from 42,086 cases). I don’t know if people were reading the document incorrectly or this was a deliberate attempt to smear the investigations but it was wrong.

The reason it was wrong is because the number of cases (42,086) were adverse event cases, not the number of doses administered. To calculate the fatality rate, as well as any other adverse event rates, the number of doses administered to date was needed. This number did not exist but the number of shipped doses was available. However, it had been redacted.

(b) (4) was the meaningful number that would enable us to calculate the various rates. Without this number it was all guess work.

However, with the latest batch of documents released today, this number has been revealed

So the mysterious number that was hidden from us originally is 126,212,580. With this we can work out various adverse event rates.

First let’s look at fatalities. As stated above, there were 1,223 fatalities up to 28 February 2021. Using the hidden number, we can work out that the fatality rate of the Pfizer vaccine was 0.0000097%. This might seem like a small number but that represents 1 death in every 103,199 shots or approximately 10 deaths per million injections.

If we extrapolate those numbers out, by 31 December 2021 Pfizer had produced 2350.5 million doses, which means this would have caused approximately 22,776 deaths worldwide. Since that date many more booster doses have been administered.

Looking at adverse events in general there were 158,893 events meaning an adverse event every 794 shots. Breaking this down further:

  • One in 4,862 injections caused a nervous system disorder;
  • One in 7,302 injections resulted in musculoskeletal and connective tissue disorders;
  • One in 8,954 injections resulted in gastrointestinal disorders;
  • One in 14,891 injections caused skin and subcutaneous tissue disorders;
  • One in 14,265 injections caused respiratory, thoracic and mediastinal disorders;
  • One in 27,378 injections resulted in infections and infestations; and
  • One in 22,578 injections resulted in injury, poisoning and procedural complications.

Remember, the missing but now revealed number to work out these rates is the number of doses shipped, not administered. The number of doses actually administered is likely to be much lower as doses would have been in storage after delivery, meaning the rates are also likely to be much higher.

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