A Twitter thread from a South African engineer sums it up: Omicron appears more contagious but far milder than earlier variants of SARS-CoV-2.
South African physicians and hospitals have leaned in this direction all along. But now we have close to three weeks of data and they are saying so with increasing certainty. The lag from symptoms to severe disease is about a week. If large numbers of patients were going to progress to hospitalization or intensive care, they almost surely would have done so by now.
1 of 6:#Omicron – Is this the end of the pandemic?
— pieterstreicher (@pieterstreicher) December 11, 2021
No restrictions will be needed to protect hospitals in any way in any country.
Gauteng, South Africa has peaked with case levels similar to Delta, but with deaths expected to be 25 times lower. pic.twitter.com/5MoNJ6Txqo
Additionally, Omicron’s mildness is not because South Africa is highly vaccinated; only about 1 in 4 South Africans is fully vaccinated.
What the media won’t tell you is that assuming this data holds, Omicron’s emergence should end COVID-19 vaccination mandates with the mRNA or DNA/AAV vaccines. Their risk profile has been steadily worsening—and no one has yet coherently explained the synchronized rise in all-cause mortality in highly vaccinated countries. The Netherlands saw all-cause mortality 41% above normal in its most recent week of data. Only 20% of those deaths were COVID-related.
Giving these COVID-19 vaccines for a virus that appears to be becoming a cold is bad public policy.
2 of 6:
— pieterstreicher (@pieterstreicher) December 11, 2021
Mild, milder, extremely mild.
As disease severity increases, the gap with Delta widens.
Keep in mind that SA is extremely vulnerable to C-19 with an average IFR of 0.5%, and 230,000 excess deaths attributable to the virus.
The IFR of #Omicron is estimated at 0.053%. pic.twitter.com/DWGAUbmSwb
4 of 6:
— pieterstreicher (@pieterstreicher) December 11, 2021
SA 1st wave – CFR ~4% ~20% infected.
SA 2nd wave (Beta) – CFR ~4% ~45% infected.
SA 3rd wave (Delta) – CFR ~3% ~70% infected.#Omicron – CFR ~0.42% ~80% infected (some reinfections)
It is highly unlikely that the 7x drop in CFR is attributable to prior immunity.
6 of 6:#Omicron is extremely mild. The rest of the world has nothing to fear.
— pieterstreicher (@pieterstreicher) December 11, 2021
SA has high natural immunity levels (70%+) and low vaccination rates (25% of the population and 60% of 50+ are fully vaccinated).