South African physicians and hospitals have leaned in this direction all along. But now we have close to three weeks of data and they are saying so with increasing certainty. The lag from symptoms to severe disease is about a week. If large numbers of patients were going to progress to hospitalization or intensive care, they almost surely would have done so by now.
Additionally, Omicron’s mildness is not because South Africa is highly vaccinated; only about 1 in 4 South Africans is fully vaccinated.
What the media won’t tell you is that assuming this data holds, Omicron’s emergence should end COVID-19 vaccination mandates with the mRNA or DNA/AAV vaccines. Their risk profile has been steadily worsening—and no one has yet coherently explained the synchronized rise in all-cause mortality in highly vaccinated countries. The Netherlands saw all-cause mortality 41% above normal in its most recent week of data. Only 20% of those deaths were COVID-related.
Giving these COVID-19 vaccines for a virus that appears to be becoming a cold is bad public policy.